Will Harrisonburg and Rockingham's Median Sales Price increase by 3%-4% in 2016?

Harrisonburg and Rockingham county have been rapidly growing areas for quite some time.  Does this mean the local housing market will follow the National Assoctiaon of REALTOR's predicted trend for Virginia?

Harrisonburg and Rockingham Compared to Virginia

Harrisonburg and Rockingham have a median sales price of $190,500 while the state median sale price is $233,800.  The higher state median sales price is obviously impacted by areas such as Northern Virginia.  Speaking of which, the District of Columbia is predicted to be one of the highest areas of growth at over 5% to 7%.  While it may be somewhat speculative to say that D.C. sales will have an impact on local sales, the proximity of the city and surrounding suburbs has often been correlated with the local housing market.  

Current Statistics for Harrisonburg and Rockingham

In my latest market report for April 2016, the year to date (YTD) median sales price already increased by 4% when comparing the YTD median sales price at the end of April 2015.  This is a great start to the year but the statistics would need to reflect greater than 3%-4% at the end of the year to stay true to the above prediction.  

At this time, sales are strong.  We have had a record amount of contracts coming in.  This could be an indicator that we will indeed see the predicted growth for the state if not higher.